UK polls close at 10:00 tonight and soon after we’ll know the result. If The Conservatives win a majority Jeremy Corbyn will likely announce his resignation, much to the relief of the overwhelming majority of Britain’s Jewish community. For the past 4.5 years Labour has been led by a man…

Assessing The Independent Group’s chances of success .

This article answers a simple question: what is Donald J. Trump’s chance of winning the 2020 Presidential election? I first assess Trump’s chances of getting reelected with his current approval rating (spoiler: not good) and then explore the chances his popularity improves enough to win another term. Trump isn’t currently popular enough to win re-election, he needs to win people over. Table 1. lists…

In 1996 a Republican who had never held any kind of office faced former Democrat Joseph E. Brennan, a former two time Governor of Maine. Democrat Bill Clinton bettered Republican Bob Dole by 21 points in Maine’s Presidential vote tally — so the Senate race was a shoo in for…

If accusations of attempted rape sink Brett Kavanaugh’s Supreme Court nomination, Senate leader Mitch McConnell will choose between i) trying to confirm a new nominee pre-midterms, ii) publicly declaring he’ll wait until after a new Congress is seated on January 3rd or iii) trying to confirm a new justice in…

(edit 06 Sep): I regret the use of “probably” in the title. There are a lot of similarities with Kudlow’s writing but “probably” (probably) overstates my confidence — it could be someone else with a background in economics.) Earlier today, the New York Times published an article by a “Senior…